Overtaxing the economy

Oh, taxes. We cannot avoid them. And the fact is that the wealthier your country is, chances are that your government's revenue as a portion of GDP is higher, too.

A Lower Minimum Wage

it is relatively more expensive to hire people in Colombia than in any of the other South American nations. It is no coincidence that Colombia has South America’s highest unemployment rate.

Comparing Neighbors

Venezuela and Colombia have followed very different economic policies in the past decade. See how they have done in 11 cool, educational graphs.

Destituir Congresistas

¿Puede el Procurador General de la Nación destituir congresistas? Se puede decir de todo acerca del Procurador Alejandro Ordóñez menos que ha no trabaja con dedicación

Salario y Desempleo

los datos entre 1990 y 2007 no están en contra de la hipótesis de que salarios mínimos más altos han afectado negativamente la tasa de empleo en Colombia.

Sunday, January 31, 2010

Memo to the government: Prudence is not equivalent to inaction

Publicado por Gusilcan
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Last Wednesday, at around 9.30 in the morning, a military helicopter from Venezuela entered Colombian airspace. For around 20 minutes, the Venezuelans flew over the city of Arauca and a Colombian military compound. The helicopter later returned to Venezuelan territory.

This violation of Colombian airspace by military aircraft of a foreign power was read differently in different quarters. Immediately after the episode, the Colombian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a communiqué describing and condemning the incident. The Ministry sent a formal note of protest to the Venezuelan government demanding an explanation.

The response from the Chavez autocracy came swiftly and as expected. Nicolás Maduro, a former bus driver turned Venezuelan Foreign Affairs Minister, presented the incident as nothing but fabrications of the Colombian government. “In Colombia that information has been used [with the purpose of launching] a dirty, brutal campaign of hatred against the people of Venezuela and the President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, to incite feelings of despise against our country” Mr. Maduro said.

Of course, nobody really believes Mr. Maduro’s baloney. After all, his job requires him to be a professional liar who shows no regard for the truth when he appears on TV. On his side, Gabriel Silva, the Colombian Defense Minister, delivered his own opinion on the incident, saying it was “not an accidental violation” of Colombian airspace. From Davos, Switzerland, where he was attending the World Economic Forum, President Alvaro Uribe quickly corrected Mr. Silva’s position: “The Colombian government has interpreted [the incident] as an error and we don’t want to think otherwise.”

Long story short, the helicopter entered Colombia and then left, the Foreign Minister condemns the incident, the Venezuelans deny it, the Minister of Defense says it was a deliberate action, and the President calls it a mistake. Please, can we find something on which there is some agreement? In fact, we can. Everyone agrees that the Colombian Armed Forces never responded in any manner whatsoever to the incursion by the Venezuelan helicopter (even Mr. Maduro, who by denying the whole thing leaves out any possibility of a Colombian response).

The Colombian government’s position is that caution advised against any immediate response to the violation of airspace. In its communiqué after the incident, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared: “Assuming a prudent attitude, the Colombian Armed Forces did not react to this unacceptable event.” In his statement, Mr. Silva said that the Colombian military “kept maximum calmness (serenity) in order to prevent [the incident] from becoming a provocation.”

Really? I am confused by these declarations from the Colombian government. Military aircraft from a foreign and potentially hostile power enters Colombian airspace without permission, stays there for 20 full minutes, flies over the capital of a Colombian department and over a military base, and the Armed Forces do nothing? And that is somehow equivalent to ‘prudence’? Of course, I am not saying that the Colombian military should have shot down the Venezuelan helicopter (my idiocy does not go that far), but there are protocols that ought to be followed when airspace violations occur.

I found myself agreeing with Senator Gustavo Petro (of all people!) on this, who said that Colombian Air Force“should have put airplanes in our airspace and established communications with the aircraft, in order to make it land or escort it towards Venezuelan territory.” He is right. That is the sort of response I would have expected from the Colombian military, and that (or worse), is the way Venezuela would have reacted if a Colombian helicopter would have invaded their airspace.

By doing nothing, the Colombian military have set a terrible precedent. Even if the Venezuelan helicopter entered the country by mistake (and I doubt it), the Colombian reaction tells the Chavez autocracy that future similar actions will go unpunished. If Colombia wants to prevent a war with Venezuela (which is definitely within the realm of possibility), if Bogota wants to deter Caracas from attacking, the Uribe administration needs to show strength and resolve. That, unfortunately, was lacking on Wednesday. Furthermore, the government should for once put its act together. Every time the President and his Ministers say different things, it gives the image of improvised, disorganized policymaking.

As Mr. Petro said via twitter, “one must act prudently, but one must act”. With the helicopter incident, the Colombian government shows it is confusing prudence with passivity and inaction, a terrible mistake in International Relations. It is true that Colombia must avoid falling into Chavez’s many provocations, but at some point Colombia will have to start flexing its muscles. Regardless of the intentions of the pilots of that helicopter, or of the people who sent them to Colombia (some could think Chavez did it in order to move attention away from the many problems he faced at home last week), airspace sovereignty is not negotiable. I hope the government knows better the next time this happens–and trust me, there will be a next time.


This article appeared first in Colombia Reports

Friday, January 29, 2010

Venezuela and Colombia in 11 graphs. A comparison.

Publicado por Gusilcan
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These are a series of charts comparing Colombia and Venezuela according to different economic indicators. I have made some comments below each one of them.

Venezuela's GDP per capita has increased much faster than Colombia's in the past eleven years. However, this is probably due to the sharp rise in the price of oil in recent years, as oil accounts for over a third of the Venezuelan economy. When Hugo Chavez came to power, oil was $9 a barrel; today that price is $72. Oil reached a peak of $147 a barrel in July of 2008.

No doubt, Venezuela's economy has been much more volatile than Colombia's. Years of high growth rates are invariably followed by economic recessions. Colombia on the other hand, left its 1999 crisis and remained in positive ground for almost a decade, although in 2008 and 2009 the economy received a big blow due to the world recession.
Inflation has been much higher in Venezuela than in Colombia in the past eleven years. Out of control government spending and price controls have really taken a toll on the purchase power of ordinary Venezuelans. In contrast, Colombian inflation has been kept under control.
This is where you may think that we are all nuts. Wasn't Venezuela the socialist country out of the two? How come the Colombian government's expenditure is larger as a portion of GDP? Yes, as a portion of the economy, the Colombian government is considerably larger than Venezuela's. However, note that while the government expenditure in Colombia tends downwards, in Venezuela it has increased considerably, from 20 to 26% of the economy since 1999.
Both the Venezuelan and the Colombian government have been unable to balance their budgets. The two of them still spend more than they earn. In any case, Venezuela's 8% budget deficit in 2009 still doubles Colombia's 4%. The Uribe administration is much more fiscally responsible than the Chavez autocracy.
Again, the price of Venezuelan exports has gone through the roof due to the price of oil. Notice how the graph peaks in 2008 and then falls markedly in 2009. Colombian exports were also hit by the world recession and Chavez's economic blockade against Colombia in 2009.
Total Factor Productivity Growth is the percentage of economic growth that is unexplained by increases of capital and labor. It seems that overall, Colombia's TFPG has been rising more consistently than Venezuela's, which keeps going up and down.
Here the Chavistas beat the Uribistas at first glance. Unemployment in Venezuela is 2.5% lower than in Colombia, while in 2003 Venezuela had 4% more unemployment. It seems that in Venezuela's case, lower unemployment has been traded for higher inflation. Hard to say which one is worse.
This graph speaks for itself. Venezuela's Inward Direct Investment has all but collapsed. People are taking money out of the country as Chavez keeps scaring investors away. Colombia's direct investment, in contrast, has soared. Perhaps some money is being sent there from scared investors in Venezuela?
Venezuela's industry has all but stagnated. Industrial output has grown about 13% in a period of ten years. In contrast, Colombia's industrial output has increased 32% in that same period.
Both governments have been able to lower the size of their debts relative to the size of their economies. Although Chavez, with lots of petrodollars in the bank, has been capable of doing it at a faster rate.

These graphs were made using the Economist Intelligence Unit's Data Tool.

Thursday, January 28, 2010

National Bias and Impartiality at the International Court of Justice - Part Two

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This is the second part of my paper on national bias in the International Court of Justice. If you haven't read part one, go here.

CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF NATIONAL PREFERENCES IN THE ICJ

It has been widely shown that judges in the ICJ have a strong national bias. But what can explain this behavior? Although it may be partly true, simply saying that the judges favor their nations because they are patriotic is an unsatisfactory answer. Moreover, what is the impact that this voting behavior has on the independence of the Court? Some could easily jump to the conclusion that the national bias destroys all impartiality in the ICJ, but, as this section shows, the reality is much more complex.

The reasons that explain the voting behavior of national judges may be psychological, academic, institutional, economic or ideological. Let us begin with the first two categories: it is understandable that ICJ judges have “strong emotional ties with their countries”, as Posner and Figueiredo put it (Posner & Figueiredo 2004, 11). After all, ICJ judges usually have served as politicians, attorneys, diplomats, public administrators, magistrates, etc. in their nations before joining the Court.[1] Their reputations as respected, well-connected people have the consequence that judges could be afraid of getting bad press in their home countries if they vote against them. Public opinion may count in their calculations. In addition, it is natural that ICJ judges have greater knowledge of the legal system and practices of their home countries. In other words, they are much more used to the way justice is made and understood in their nations. It is difficult to put aside all these experiences and emotional ties, especially when the national interests of one’s own country are at stake. These psychological and academic constraints could explain the national bias in the Court to some extent.

Nonetheless, the previous section of this paper shows that judges in the ECHR do not have the same national bias that ICJ judges have. Why is this? There has to be something specific in the way the ICJ operates (i.e., in its institutional characteristics) that explains this behavior. The first of these institutional reasons is the fact that judges are rarely (in fact, never) dismissed by their fellow judges. Obtaining the unanimity (fourteen votes) needed to dismiss one judge is a costly process, and it is easy to see that the existing two and three-judge voting blocs in the Court, as described by Hensley, make this process virtually impossible. Therefore, ICJ judges know that they can repeatedly vote in favor of their nation without fear of being dismissed by their fellow judges.

The second institutional explanation for the national bias in the ICJ is, in a way, the opposite of the previous one. The other Members of the Court may be unable to affect a judge’s position, but there is someone else who has power over the judge’s job: her national government. During the judge election process, it is national governments who choose their candidates and who lobby other UN members for their votes in the General Assembly and the Security Council. Judges could lose reelection support from their governments if they vote consistently against their contentions. Thus, if a judge wants to retain his position, it is in her interest to favor her State when it appears before the Court. No fear of dismissal if they vote for their country, and fear of losing reelection if they do not, helps explain the national bias, too.

What happens with ad hoc judges? They are not running for reelection, and once elected they stay in office for the entire duration of the case. Then, why is it that they vote for their national governments with astounding frequency? A national government is able to elect ad hoc judges at its discretion, and after the dispute has reached the Court. As a consequence, governments usually choose judges who have a formed opinion in the case and who will favor their contentions once on the bench (Kuijer 1997, 51). This ex post capacity of national governments to choose ad hoc judges guarantees that these judges will be biased almost by default. This also helps explain why ad hoc judges show a greater national bias than regular ICJ judges.

The economic reasons, of national bias are related to the points made in the paragraph above. Although the ICJ judges obtain their annual salary from the Court’s coffers (and not their government’s), judges are not at risk of losing their wage if they displease their government (ICJ, 2006b). However, when they vote, judges may be thinking about their financial stability after leaving the ICJ. A government can punish a ‘disloyal’ judge by deciding to give her no other public positions when their tenure ends (Posner & Figueiredo 2004, 11). Posner and Figueiredo logically conclude that “these considerations are likely to weigh even more heavily in the calculations from authoritarian states” where control of the economy remains largely in the hands of the State (Posner & Figueiredo 2004, 11).

Finally, there are some ideological explanations as well. As it was mentioned, judges usually vote for countries that have political systems and levels of wealth similar to those of their own states. This could stem from a belief that some sorts of government and economic organization are better than others (e.g., democracies vs. dictatorships, capitalism vs. planned economies). Also, judges from poor countries may be more open to the belief that poor nations deserve retribution from richer States (e.g., for past colonial practices, trade policies, etc.), while judges from developed countries may think the contrary. These beliefs, if ingrained in the judges’ minds, may have a bearing in the way they vote. Given their profound convictions, judges could be ideologically predisposed to favor their own nations and other countries with similar characteristics.

All the reasons shown above sound rather cynical. Are ICJ judges so guided by their patriotic, personal, and material considerations that they are unable to look at the cases with at least some objectivity? What about the ideals of international law and justice to which they have dedicated a good part of their careers? Actually, there is a final explanation of national bias (which is not discussed in depth in any of the works cited here) that takes this last issue into consideration: ICJ judges may decide to vote in favor of their nations in order to preserve their country’s commitment to the Court and to international justice. If a government comes to believe that its point of view is rarely represented on the Court’s bench, this could reduce its willingness to comply with the judgments of the ICJ and lead it to stop seeing the Court as a tribunal where its contentions will be treated fairly. This is something that national judges may take into account, especially if their nation has shown some opposition to the ICJ in the past. Thus, national judges could see themselves as the keepers of the Court’s credibility before their government’s eyes, understanding that to vote against their country could undermine the job of the ICJ.

This leads us to the consequences of national bias at the ICJ. Many criticize this behavior by arguing that it puts into question the impartiality of the Court. Yet, the previous paragraph points to a different logic. The national bias may be “a political necessity” for the ICJ to work, given that it may increase confidence in and compliance with the Court’s decisions (Kuijer 1997, 51-52). If there was no guarantee that the position of all litigant parties would be represented on the bench, national governments could be less willing to trust the ICJ (Kuijer 1997, 56). In this case, a court of sovereign States where territorial, economic and other important national interests are discussed sounds like the one place where one should be allowed as a judge in one’s own cause. As some have argued, allowing permanent and ad hoc national judges to sit in the Court is a political concession that helps the cause of international law.

Nonetheless, the above does not solve the issue of the Court’s impartiality. Regardless of its ‘political necessity’, the national bias could still represent a danger for the objectivity of the ICJ. This point of view, however, does not hold in practice. Allowing national judges to sit in the Court does not diminish the ICJ’s impartiality or change the outcome of the cases. There are two main reasons why this occurs: First, in a normal case with two litigants there are maximum two national judges on the bench (one for each party). If these national judges vote in favor of their own countries, as it occurs 90 percent of the times, their votes will cancel out, having no bearing on the final outcome, as all rulings are made by majority decision (Posner & Figueiredo 2004, 12). Second, it is fact that the vast majority of cases at the ICJ are decided by large majorities of ten or more judges. In almost all cases, there are few dissenters, and so, there are almost no close votes in the Court. Out of the 140-odd cases on which the ICJ has issued judgments since 1949 there are only two (Liberia v. South Africa and Ethiopia v. South Africa, both on 1966) that were decided in an 8-7 split vote. This means that the votes of national judges are almost never decisive in swinging a decision one way or the other, as the outcome would have been exactly the same as if they had not been sitting in the Court.

CONCLUSION

There is a large body of evidence showing that judges at the ICJ tend to favor their home states and states with similar characteristics to their own. The statistical work of scholars and the opinions written by the judges are proof of this national bias. As their position in the Court and their future financial stability inter alia depend on the support of their national governments, it is logical that ICJ judges favor the contentions of their own States. Nonetheless, judges may also support their nations as a way to uphold the credibility of the Court and of its judgments.

Although some claim that this national bias hinders the Court’s credibility, this is not the case. Statistically, the votes of national judges are irrelevant for the decisions of the ICJ, as they almost never alter the outcome of the cases. Furthermore, as the votes of the two opposing national judges usually cancel each other out, there is no ground for the argument that the national bias has an impact on the Court’s decisions. Therefore, although ICJ judges are certainly one-sided regarding their own countries, the Court as a whole remains impartial and largely unaffected by the existence of the national bias.

For these reasons, changing the Court’s structure in order to prevent national judges from participating in the cases would be both unnecessary and potentially harmful. It would be unnecessary because keeping national judges out of the procedures would not alter the outcome of the vast majority of cases. And it would be potentially harmful because it can diminish both the credibility of the ICJ and the compliance with its decisions among sovereign States.

As many nations turn to the ICJ in order to solve disputes that could also be dealt with through other less preferable means (war being the most destructive), maintaining the credibility of the Court is a task of utmost importance. All changes that could damage the trust that sovereign States have put in the ICJ should be left aside. There can be little doubt that getting rid of regular and ad hoc national judges would be one of these unwelcome changes.

WORKS CITED

Government of Malaysia. (2004, March 25). Memorial of Malaysia. Retrieved January 12, 2010, from International Court of Justice: http://www.icj-cij.org/docket/files/130/14139.pdf

Government of Nicaragua. (1984, April 9). Application Instituting Procedures . Retrieved January 13, 2010, from International Court of Justice: http://www.icj-cij.org/docket/files/70/9615.pdf

Government of Singapore. (2004, March 25). Memorial of Singapore. Retrieved January 12, 2010, from International Court of Justice: http://www.icj-cij.org/docket/files/130/14133.pdf

Government of the United States. (1984, August 17). Counter-memorial of the United States. Retrieved January 12, 2010, from International Court of Justice: http://www.icj-cij.org/docket/files/70/9627.pdf

Hensley, T. R. (1978). Bloc Voting on the International Court of Justice. The Journal of Conflict Resolution , 22 (1), 39-58.

International Court of Justice. (2006a). How The Court Works. Retrieved January 6, 2010, from The International Court of Justice: http://www.icj-cij.org/court/index.php?p1=1&p2=6

International Court of Justice. (2006b). Members of the Court. Retrieved January 6, 2010, from The International Court of Justice: http://www.icj-cij.org/court/index.php?p1=1&p2=2

International Court of Justice. (1978, July 1). Rules of Court. Retrieved January 6, 2010, from International Court of Justice - Basic Documents: http://www.icj-cij.org/documents/index.php?p1=4&p2=3&p3=0

International Court of Justice. (1945, June 26). Statute of the International Court of Justice. Retrieved January 6, 2010, from The International Court of Justice: http://www.icj-cij.org/documents/index.php?p1=4&p2=2&p3=0

International Court of Justice. (1986, June 27). Summary of Judgment of June 27, 1986. Retrieved January 12, 2010, from International Court of Justice: http://www.icj-cij.org/docket/files/70/6505.pdf

International Court of Justice. (2008, May 23). Summary of the Judgment of 23 May 2008. Retrieved January 12, 2010, from International Court of Justice: http://www.icj-cij.org/docket/files/130/14506.pdf

International Court of Justice. (2006c). The Court. Retrieved January 12, 2010, from International Court of Justice: http://www.icj-cij.org/court/index.php?p1=1

Kuijer, M. (1997). Voting Behaviour and National Bias in the European Court of Human Rights and the International Court of Justice. Leiden Journal of International Law , 10 (1), 49-67.

Madison, J. (1787, November 22). The Federalist No. 10. Retrieved January 6, 2010, from Constitution.org: http://www.constitution.org/fed/federa10.htm

Posner, E. A., & Figueiredo, M. D. (2004, December). Is the International Court Biased? Chicago John M. Olin Law & Economics Papers .

Schwebel, S. (1986, June 27). Dissenting Opinion of Judge Schwebel. Retrieved January 12, 2010, from International Court of Justice: http://www.icj-cij.org/docket/files/70/6501.pdf

Suh, I. R. (1968). Voting Behavior of National Judges in International Courts. The American Journal of International Law , 63 (2), 224-236.


[1] The biographies of the current judges in the ICJ may be found at: http://www.icj-cij.org/court/index.php?p1=1&p2=2&p3=1

National Bias and Impartiality at the International Court of Justice - Part One

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Recently, I had to write a paper for a class called Judicial Politics. In my paper I decided to study the national bias existing in the International Court of Justice. A large body of empirical evidence shows that ICJ judges usually vote in favor of their country of origin when it appears before the Court. Moreover, there is evidence of bloc-voting and other biases inside the Court, which has led several observers to question the ICJ's impartiality. In my paper I analyze the impact that the existence of the 'national bias' has on the impartiality and the credibility of the Court.

I will post the paper in two different entries, given its extension. Here is the first part:

The fifteen regular judges that serve in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) have the important task of solving disputes among sovereign States. Those who believe that the differences between US Supreme Court justices are sharp, could change their minds after looking at the composition of the ICJ: these judges come from a variety of academic backgrounds, speak different languages, are knowledgeable in distinct legal systems, and have different nationalities. However, even if the membership of the ICJ is supposed to represent the “main forms of civilization and of the principal legal systems of the world” all of its judges express a deep commitment to International Law (International Court of Justice, 1945, Art. 9). Every time a new judge joins the ICJ, she is required to make the following declaration before her colleagues: “I solemnly declare that I will perform my duties and exercise my powers as judge honourably, faithfully, impartially and conscientiously” (ICJ, 1978, Art. 4, emphasis added).

Nonetheless, some observers have put into question the impartiality of the ICJ due to the way in which the Court operates. Think about James Madison’s words in Federalist No. 10 that “[n]o man is allowed to be a judge in his own cause because his interest would certainly bias his judgment, and, not improbably, corrupt his integrity” (Madison, 1787). However, in every case before the ICJ, each country that is a party to the dispute is allowed to have one judge from that nationality sitting on the bench (ICJ 1945, Art. 31). If there is no judge from the nationality of one of the parties among the fifteen regular judges, that country is allowed to name an ad hoc judge who will sit in the Court for the duration of the case (ICJ 1945, Art. 31).

Several questions arise from this particular way in which the ICJ proceeds: 1) Do judges vote according to their national preferences? 2) What are some possible explanations for this behavior? 3) If judges are biased, is this something that hinders the Court’s ability to produce fair and impartial rulings? 4) Are there structural or procedural changes the Court could undergo in order to solve current problems? This paper aims to answer these questions by looking at past scholarship on the subject and presenting original work that examines the behavior of national judges in the ICJ. This analysis is divided in four sections. The first one offers general background on the procedure and the composition of the Court. The second section examines the scholarly evidence regarding ICJ voting patterns and the preferences of judges, and looks as primary sources, such as the opinions of judges in cases involving their own nations. The third section explores the reasons behind the voting patterns shown by ICJ judges as well as the impact of this behavior on the Court’s impartiality. A final section concludes.

BACKGROUNDER: the International Court of Justice

Founded in 1945, the International Court of Justice is the most important judicial organ of the United Nations, whose main purpose is “to settle, in accordance with international law, legal disputes submitted to it by States” (ICJ 2006c). All UN members are parties to the ICJ’s statute, which means that virtually every nation has the right to submit cases to the Court (ICJ 2006a). However, the ICJ will consider itself capable of ruling on a dispute only if the States involved mutually consent to it, or if the case concerns a treaty containing a provision that stipulates that disputes over the application of the treaty would be referred to the Court (ICJ 2006a). Type of cases that the ICJ has heard in the past, include disputes over land and maritime delimitation, the legality of the use of force, issues of sovereignty, nuclear tests, etc.[1]

As it was mentioned above, there are two types of judges sitting in the ICJ: regular judges and ad hoc judges. The fifteen regular judges serve terms of nine years with one possible consecutive reelection. Articles 1 to 15 of the 1945 Statute of the Court outline the judge election process. Regular judges are selected from a list of candidates nominated by the national groups of the Permanent Court of Arbitration, another UN judicial organ of lesser importance where all UN members are represented.[2] All nominees ought to be persons who are knowledgeable of international law, or who hold the qualifications to accede to the highest judicial offices in their home countries, according to Article 1 of the Court’s statute. The UN Secretary General gathers this list of nominees and presents it to the General Assembly and the Security Council, who proceed independently from one another during the election. In order to be elected to the Court, a candidate will have to obtain an absolute majority in both the General Assembly and the Security Council.

The selection process for regular ICJ judges ensures that all the “principal regions of the globe” are represented in the Court at all times (ICJ 2006b). At present, two judgeships are reserved for countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, five for Western Europe and its offshoots –including the US, Canada, Australia, etc. –three for Africa and Asia each, and two for Eastern Europe (ICJ 2006b).

The process for selecting ad hoc judges has fewer participants and bureaucratic restrictions. A party to a dispute without representation among the regular judges is generally free to name an ad hoc judge at its discretion (ICJ 1978, Art. 35). The only requirement for ad hoc judges is that they too must be prominent jurists in their nations, preferably those presented by the governments as candidates for a regular seat in the ICJ. Once a decision on the name of the ad hoc judge has been reached, the party must notify the Court, and if the opposing party and the Court itself present no objections, the judge joins the bench with the same rights and privileges of regular judges for the duration of the case (ICJ 1978, Art. 7). This relatively easy, constrain-free selection process contrasts with that of the regular judges, which is influenced by the politics of the General Assembly and the Security Council.

Another important point regards the impeachment of judges in the ICJ. Once a judge has joined the Court, removing her from the position is difficult to achieve, as she may only be dismissed by “the unanimous opinion of the other members (i.e., judges)” (ICJ 1945, Art. 8). To date, no ICJ judge has ever been dismissed.[3] Thus, in practice, the only reasons why an ICJ judge leaves the bench are resignation, losing reelection, the end of two consecutive terms, and death.

Finally, in deciding cases, the ICJ works very much as any other high tribunal of justice. The Court accepts both oral and written evidence, and after the hearings are closed, the judges of the Court withdraw to deliberate in private (ICJ 1945, Art. 52 & 54). When a majority of the judges support the ICJ’s decision, it becomes a binding ruling for the parties, and a majority opinion is written (ICJ 1945, Art. 55 & 59). The judges who vote against the majority may write dissenting opinions (ICJ 1945, Art. 57).

National Preferences in the International Court of Justice

The individuals who serve as judges of the ICJ are leading experts in their field and presumably they have great respect for the ideas of justice and fairness –after all, they have dedicated their lives to studying and interpreting the law. Accordingly, one expects their judicial decisions to be unbiased, which means that for a number of similar cases, their rulings should be similar, regardless of the parties involved. In other words, most people would agree that the decisions of these international judges should only be guided by the facts of the case, and not by the identity of the parties in the dispute.

Nevertheless, there is a great body of evidence that points to a very different direction. As a matter of fact, judges in the ICJ usually favor the position of their own governments when these appear before the Court –they have a national bias. This behavior has been documented and discussed by scholars at least since 1968, when Professor Il Ro Suh of Baker University, using a data set of 203 ICJ votes, calculated that judges vote for their government’s position about 82 percent of the time (Suh 1968, 228). When studying them separately, Suh found that regular judges vote in favor of their States 70 percent of the times, while ad hoc judges do so in 91 percent of the cases (Suh 1968, 230). Furthermore, Suh found that in 5.5 percent of the times when regular judges voted in favor of their government’s position, they did so as only dissenters, while ad hoc judges showed this behavior in 19 percent of those votes (Suh 1968, 228).

These statistics are telling. Both regular and ad hoc judges recurrently vote in favor of their own countries, even against the opinion of the rest of the members of the Court. Suh demonstrates that, in general, judges do not act independently of national interests.

Nevertheless, although Suh’s points are illuminating, his dataset has the shortcoming that it was taken four decades ago. In that time, the world order has changed significantly, globalization has taken hold, and NGOs and other non-State actors have come to the forefront of world politics, challenging the supremacy of the State in international relations. Could it, then, be possible that Suh’s findings are outdated and that national biases in the ICJ are much weaker now? Consider that in the two decades since 1990 more cases were taken to the Court (72 in total) than in the forty-two years between 1947 and 1989 (71 cases). Perhaps this increase in the Court’s docket indicates greater trust in international justice, product of a decline in national bias within the ICJ.

Again, however, the evidence points in a different direction. In a 2004 paper, Eric A. Posner and Miguel de Figueiredo built their own dataset using much more recent information on votes by ICJ judges. According to their results, all ICJ judges voted for their home countries in 88.9 percent of the proceedings (Posner & Figueiredo 2004, 18). Again, ad hoc judges show a national bias more frequently than regular judges (90.5 percent of the times vs. 83.3 percent, respectively). Posner and Figueiredo’s results are consistent with those found by Suh thirty five years before. Time has not diminished the incidence of national bias in the Court; if anything, the frequency of this behavior has increased about 13 percent among regular judges!

Posner and Figueiredo also found evidence that ICJ judges have other biases besides that for their own state. In their study of 1358 proceedings at the ICJ, they concluded that ICJ judges favor states whose level of economic development is similar to that of their own states (Posner & Figueiredo 2004, 21). If the GDP of a country is very close to that of the judge’s nation, there is a probability of around 80% that she will vote in favor of that country. If the GDP of the judge’s nation and that of the litigant differ widely, that probability goes down to 20%. Furthermore, judges also favor States with similar political systems to their own, so that judges who come from democracies tend to vote against nondemocracies, and vice versa (Posner & Figueiredo 2004, 22).

Although none of these preferences are as strong as the national bias, they do indicate the existence of an important phenomenon that is useful for the discussion at hand: bloc voting at the ICJ. The results summarized in the previous paragraph suggest that judges coming from wealthy democracies would vote similarly, forming one camp, whereas judges from poorer nondemocracies would form another clear bloc.

In 1978, Thomas Hensley from the Kent State University in Ohio found some evidence on this, and wrote that votes in the ICJ “reveal several two- and three-judge blocs” (Hensley 1978, 39). Studying the permanent members of the Court of 1972, Hensley found that the two Communist judges (from the Soviet Union and Poland) had high levels of agreement across a number of ICJ rulings (Hensley 1978, 46). Furthermore, the five judges from NATO (from Belgium, Canada, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States) usually voted in a similar way, too. Perhaps these “clear differences between Western and Communist justices”, as Hensley puts it, are unsurprising given that the Cold War was taking place at the time (Hensley 1978, 48). However, the fact that ICJ judges form blocs according to international alliances and similarities in political and economic systems should give pause for thought. The evidence that ICJ judges are not entirely objective, given that they tend to favor their own countries and their allies, keeps piling up.

Looking at all the evidence mentioned above, one may think that national bias is something to be expected from all tribunals formed by judges from different countries. Perhaps there is nothing special about the ICJ in that respect. However, Martin Kuijer from the University of Leiden found that this is not necessarily the case, and that the national bias in the ICJ is particularly sharper than in other international Courts. Kuijer compared voting behavior at the ICJ with that at the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), a Strasbourg-based tribunal that monitors respect to human rights in its 47 member States.[4] Comparing the ICJ and the ECHR is convenient because the two Courts use ad hoc judges (Kuijer 1997, 50).

Kuijer’s comparison does not show ICJ judges in a good light: judges in the ECHR voted against their government’s position in 61.6 percent of the 375 cases he studied (Kuijer 1997, 58). That is an enormous difference with the 10 percent of the cases in which ICJ judges vote in opposition to their national governments. Nevertheless, when taking ECHR ad hoc judges alone, the national bias increases significantly, as it occurs in the ICJ: Kuijer’s data says that these judges voted in favor of their own governments 60.9% of the cases in the European court (Kuijer 1997, 60). In any case, this number is not even close to the frequency with which ICJ ad hoc judges support the causes of their own States. Furthermore, judges in the ICJ are much more ready than ECHR judges to dissent from the majority of the Court and favor their home countries. While ECHR judges favored their States against the majority of the Court in just 11.2 percent of the votes, ICJ judges behaved that way 43 percent of the time, according to Kuijer’s data (Kuijer 1997, 58-63).

The studies by Suh, Posner and Figueiredo, Hensley, and Kuijer leave little doubt that the judges of the ICJ exhibit a particularly strong case of national bias. The next section of this paper explores some of the reasons why this behavior occurs. But first, let us examine a couple of specific examples of national bias in the ICJ, using both the majority and the dissenting opinions of the judges.

Case study 1: Nicaragua v. United States of America, 1984-1986

In 1984, the Sandinista-run government of Nicaragua filed a suit against the United States in the International Court of Justice. The Nicaraguans maintained that the US Government had trained a group “of more than 10,000 mercenaries”, known as contras, along their border with neighboring countries, and that these armed groups were “direct[ing] attacks against human and economic targets inside Nicaragua” (Government of Nicaragua, 2). On its side, the United States argued that the dispute was “not within the jurisdiction of the Court” because Nicaragua had not provided proof of its ratification of the Court’s Statute (US Counter-memorial 1984, 4). Furthermore, the US maintained that its actions were justified by “the inherent rights to individual and collective self-defense guaranteed to any such other State by Article 51 of the [United Nations] Charter” (US Counter-memorial 1984, 133)

Two years later, the ICJ issued a judgment containing sixteen operative clauses on which the Court voted separately (ICJ 1986). Most of the clauses condemned the US for its training of the contras. Clause two, for instance, rejected the American justification of collective self-defense and ruled that the United States “had acted, against the Republic of Nicaragua, in breach of its obligation under customary international law not to intervene in the affairs of another state” (ICJ 1986, 161). In a textbook example of national preferences at the ICJ, Judge Stephen Schwebel of the United States voted against this plus other eleven clauses of the judgment. Judge Schwebel even voted as only dissenter against three of the clauses (nos. 7, 14 and 15), two of which ruled that the United States was “under an obligation to make reparation to the Republic of Nicaragua for all injury caused” (ICJ 1986, 162).

In his dissenting opinion, Judge Schwebel repeated some of the same arguments that had been put forward by the representatives of the United States before the Court. He took his country’s position and defended it from the bench. In his dissenting opinion, the judge wrote again that Nicaragua could not act before the ICJ because it had not ratified the Court’s statute (Scwhebel, 560). Furthermore, Schwebel argued that the United States “acted lawfully” in its support of the contras, as it was reacting “in collective self-defense” in support of Nicaragua’s neighboring countries, which had previously been attacked by Nicaragua. (ICJ 1986, 168). Providing an example of bloc-voting, two other judges also voted against the opinion of the Court: Sir Robert Jennings of the United Kingdom, and Shigeru Oda of Japan.

Case study 2: Malaysia/Singapore 2003-2008

On July 2003, the Governments of Malaysia and Singapore notified the ICJ that they had entered an agreement by which they requested the Court to determine whether three groups of islands (Pedra Branca/Pulau Batu Puteh, Middle Rocks and South Ledge) belonged to one country or the other. As neither State had a national judge sitting in the Court, both Singapore and Malaysia elected ad hoc judges for this case (ICJ 2008, 1).

Predictably, in the written proceedings of the case, both countries claimed to have sovereignty over all three islands. Malaysia argued that its claim over Pedra Branca/Pulau Batu Puteh was much older than Singapore’s 1980 claim, and that the islands lie significantly closer to the Malaysian mainland (Government of Malaysia 2003, 3). In the following pages of its Memorial to the Court, Malaysia made similar claims about the other two islands. On its side, Singapore argued that Pedra Branca/Pulau Batu Puteh was part of its territory since the 1840s, and that Malaysia had “purported to include Pedra Branca within Malaysia’s territorial waters” since 1979 (Government of Singapore 2003, 1).

In a three-clause decision, the Court decided that sovereignty over Pedra Branca/Pulau Batu Puteh belonged to Singapore, and that sovereignty over Middle Rocks belonged to Malaysia (ICJ 2008, 13). South Ledge would belong to the State in the territorial waters of which it is located, leaving the matter to interpretation. Following a national bias, the Malaysian ad hoc judge Dugard voted against the first clause, while the Singaporean ad hoc judge Sreenivasa Rao voted against the second clause as only dissenter (ICJ 2008, 13). None of the two judges dissented on the third clause. This case illustrates how ad hoc judges vote for/against clauses depending on whether or not they benefit their national governments.



[1] A complete list of cases heard by the ICJ since 1947 may be found at http://www.icj-cij.org/docket/index.php?p1=3&p2=3

[2] More information on the Permanent Court of Arbitration and their national groups is available at: http://www.pca-cpa.org/showpage.asp?pag_id=363

[3] A list of all judges who have served in the Court since 1946 may be found at: http://www.icj-cij.org/court/index.php?p1=1&p2=2&p3=2. Judges who do not finish their full term usually resign or die in office.

[4] For more information on the European Court of Human Rights, visit: http://www.echr.coe.int/echr/Homepage_EN

 

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